NFL Betting - Your Edge Over The Fans
NFL odds are usually determined by brilliant NFL handicappers. Correct? Yes, but
not necessarily true, as the NFL lines are also not necessarily a true handicap.
This can be explained as follows: Dallas are -3 to beat Carolina. What
this means is that NFL handicappers believe at a line of 3 there will be the
most action on either side of the line, and not literally that... the Cowboys are 3 points superior to the Panthers.
Now these have very different connotations, and must be explained as it is
critical to appreciate the value of NFL betting. Whilst the difference between Dallas and Carolina may
actually be only 1 point, the NFL bookies know that the Cowboys are THE "America's team".
Translated: only a fool will do to a Vegas sportsbook and put money down on the Cowboys, and
not care about the line. There are limits - one could not make Dallas -7 if they should be -1,
at -3 one will still divide the action.
Currently, the NFL odds are being affected by the futures market for the 2005 NFL season. The Cowboys are quoted at
15:1 to win the Superbowl, yet they are at best, a 25:1, as they don't have the
offence to win a playoff game. Most NFL handicappers agree they are
actually worse now than last year, with an untried running-back, an big-headed coach, and a
"not-bad, not-great" D. NFL betting has made them a huge underlay as
there are buyers at that price. NFL betting is a simple market. If there are gamblers willing to take the
15:1 then the price stays at 15:1.
So, the point to remember is ... when betting the NFL look for "brand-name" teams and coaches
(ie: the Cowboys), as chances are the part-time sports punter will actually
think that they are better than they really are. There are other overrated teams
including: the Broncos (currently at 18:1 to win the Superbowl), and the Steelers
(30:1 to win the Superbowl). These 2 teams will struggle to make the playoffs, so they are
unquestionably overpriced in the NFL betting markets currently.
On the other hand, teams that seem to be ignored in smaller markets, ie: the NFL betting market undervalues the Seahawks
and the Jaguars. Betting on these teams in the 1st few weeks of the season to cover may
result in a great betting strategy, as they should outperform the line. Most
Vegas NFL handicappers, who set the lines, know this. Their function is to split the action,
and not to pick the game. This is your edge - remember this point - it is the key to
lucrative NFL betting.
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