NFL Betting For Serious Handicappers
Most experts tell punters to never take a teaser or parlay when they place their NFL bets. Similarly, a lot of NFL
punters never take money-line action on the NFL, and so... the amount of wagers placed on NFL points totals (the Over / Under market) is always
way smaller than the handle for spread or handicap bets. It almost seems like
the NFL handicappers are limiting themselves to taking or laying points on a side in the
NFL. If so, these punters are also really limiting their options and making
their life much harder to boot!
Ken White is currently the head honcho in Vegas, the man who decides the lines for NFL betting.
Ken and his expert team as NFL handicappers are fearsome, and whipping them is
one thing 95% of sports gamblers will never ever do! There will be games where
that line fits so tight, the punters can just wonder at their precision. When
looking at an NFL spread beforehand, there is only 1 thing to do - Not to sit
out, BUT to rush for that 6-point teaser play!
The teaser in NFL betting is much-criticised and misunderstood.
Not all teasers are idiotic bets just because they seem to be the first bet for
idiots. The first rule, is to never take more that a 6-pont teaser.
If 6-pts can't help then 8 or 9 won't either. Each time a punter plays a
teaser he sacrifices value and gives the sports book a greater edge - the points
are traded in exchange for paying the punter less than their bet is worth!
Remember that!
Serious NFL punters or handicappers only play teasers in certain cases, such
as : when the line is perfect. Firstly: the punter must handicap the game and have an opinion before
he sees the line. Should he be in agreement with the spread, and can't see a
method to beat it, he should look at the 6 points. Clearly, this would be best
used in games where the line is 2,5 or 3, and he wants to increase that line to
8,5 or 9 - taking the favorite would be illogical here. Where the line is less than 2,
either side is suitable for the teaser player. Teaser bets should NOT be taken in the NFL,
where more than 2 teams are featured. It is not worth it... Trust me...
NFL handicappers or punters should consider betting the money-line more often,
instead of constantly taking or laying points. If the handicapper likes a small dog (+4 or less) lots,
he will get much better value, taking that team to win the game, straight up on the money-line.
He should have his own line in mind and not be swayed with the actual line until
it finally matches up, at which point he must then take action.
It is difficult to validate or justify a parlay, unless it is a 2-team parlay, and
the punter only plays them cautiously. Simply put: They are hard to cash in, and
a punters' break-even percentage is higher than if he took single bets. However,
the temptation of a big payoff has charmed many players and there has even been a 4-team parlay when the bankroll
has been low! TRY to avoid these bets. They are made for suckers, and what
is that age one is born every minute.... don't be one!
Certain NFL teams that make lots of appeal purely as total points teams. The Chiefs,
last season, were built to take games Over - lots of offence, no Defence, and the Panthers were the opposite in the NFC.
If handicappers / punters identify these teams early on, they can make all the profits
they need, by playing "Totals" as their main bet. "Over / Under
plays" are excellent, particularly when the game is difficult to handicap on the spread. This year,
teams such as the Lions and the Rams should go "Over" lots at home,
whilst the Cowboys seems a lock to go "Under."
|
