NFL Odds and NFL Spreads - A Basic Tutorial

NFL Odds tutorial. Understanding the vigorish or the Vig and the percentage of NFL bets you need to win in order to show a profit with NFL picks.

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NFL Odds and NFL Spreads - A Basic Tutorial	--


Understanding NFL Odds When selecting an NFL Pick that you should bet on, you first need to understand NFL odds, particularly the concept of the Vig or Vigorish. If you ask gamblers who bet on sports what commission they pay on their NFL bets the chances are they will say 4.55%. But that isn't true. Everyone pays a different amount of vigorish, or handle, to the sports books over the course of a season. If you were to lose every NFL bet you placed you wouldn't pay any Vig at all. Only winners pay vigorish, and if you won every single NFL Pick you would end up paying 9.09% of your total winnings in commissions to the sports book. NFL Odds are not 50/50. When you see the following NFL Line: Colts -3 at Texans, your odds are actually 10/11 rather than 10/10. Whichever side of the line you want to bet on you have to place $11 to win a profit of $10. If it was a 50/50 proposition you would get back $11 for your $11 wager. But the bookmaker is the middle-man (in an ideal world), who matches both sides of the line, and for his efforts he receives that $1 from the winner of the bet. Now that $1 equates to a 9.09% bite out of the winning bet. If over the course of a season you hit exactly 50% of your NFL Picks you would end up paying 4.55% in commission to the books, and you will show a net loss of 4.55%. Winning 50% of your NFL Picks is not good enough. You will still show a net loss. That's why there is a "magic number" in NFL handicapping that all touts strive to attain. That number is roughly 53%. You need to win 53% of all your NFL bets in order to break even on the season. At MasterBets we aim for a winning % of 58%. That ensures a good profit on the season, and it is feasible. Handicappers who promise results in excess of 60% are selling you fiction. It is impossible to hit those numbers overall consistently. BUT, This magic number is based on one crucial assumption, namely that all bets you place are exactly the same amount. Why should you ever do this? Betting the same on every game plays into the hands of the sports books. Changing bet size is the one advantage a sports bettor has over the NFL odds. Just like in Blackjack when the count is in your favor so it is with NFL picks - you don't have to bet the same for every NFL Pick, nor should you. One big win on a TOP PICK play can erase 10 small losess, and adjusting your bets is the key to success. As with Blackjack you need to start with a bankroll that will allow for fluctuations, and by that we mean you need enough in the warchest to survive a losing streak. You should never risk more than 2% of your bankroll on one regular NFL Pick. If you are going to bet $50 on each NFL Pick then you will need $2500 for the NFL season. However, you can and should be prepared to spend up to 10% of your bankroll on a TOP PICK. We would never spend more than this on any one play. But one big TOP PICK win can even out those NFL odds in a hurry. It is important to understand the concept of vigorish, or the sports book's handle, when looking at NFL odds. A lot of online sports books offer 10/12 betting on the NFL. This is one way to become poor in a hurry. NEVER lay 12 to win 10 in the NFL. You are giving up over 16% of your winnings in this scenario. If we played heads and tails and you were charged 16% every time you won, but paid out the full amount every time you lost, how long would it take for you to lose everything? Not long at all. Always confirm that you are getting at least -110 for your NFL spread bet.
Related Articles:
- How To Bet On The NFL As An NFL Handicapper - NFL Football Betting - Beginners Guide - Part 1 of 2 - NFL Betting - Take note what the fans think - NFL Sports Betting - NFL Live Scores - NFL Handicapping Strategies - NFL Football Betting - Beginners Guide - Part 2 of 2 - NFL Betting Line