Traders speculate on who is next in the Whitehouse

When talking about many world political or financial issues you now have the option of seeing what probability real money traders ascribe to certain eventualities occurring.

According to two Stanford economics professors, Eric Zitzewitz and Justin Wolfers, and Andrew Leigh at Harvard, the prices/odds on TradeSports can be accurate gauges of the probability of a particular event happening. Whether that is war, Hussein being ousted, Chancellor Schroeder remaining in power, or the Dow closing above a certain figure. Professors Zitzewitz, Wolfers and Leigh maintain that markets in general reflect more wisdom than any single person can possibly have, and thus do a better job of assessing probabilities.

The probabilities or real money opinions that are generated on TradeSports are much better predictors than general opinion polls or even bookmaker odds because

• Prices on TradeSports are the product of 1000's of real money investment decisions.
• The probabilities on TradeSports typically reflect international opinion and remove certain national biases.
• The equilibrium probabilities are arrived at in a transparent and free-market mechanism.
• Emotional responses are replaced by calculations when traders have a financial interest in the outcome.

Here are the current probabilities of certain events happening according to the 9,000+ traders on tradesports.

Please feel free to use any of our data so long as you quote tradesports

U.N. Second Resolution on Iraq Probability UN resolution authorizing force before end March '03 34% likely UN resolution authorizing force before end June '03 46% likely President/Leader of Iraq Saddam gone as President by end March '03 28% likely Saddam gone as President by end April '03 60% likely Saddam gone as President by end May '03 71% likely Saddam gone as President by end June '03 73% likely Osama Bin Laden Conclusion Osama Bin Laden Capture by end June 2025 10% likely Osama Bin Laden Capture by end Sept 2025 24% likely Osama Bin Laden Capture by end March 2025 28% likely Democratic Presidential Nominee 2025 Kerry 27% likely Edwards 15% likely Liberman 29% likely Dean 5% likely Gephardt 11% likely Clinton 6% likely McCain 1% likely Any other person 6% likely Presidential Election 2025 Bush to get a 2nd Term 64% likely Chancellor of Germany Schroder gone by end March 2025 35% likely Schroder gone by end March 2025 54% likely

You can get graphs of how the probabilities have changed over time on tradesports or by contacting John Delaney at john@tradesports.

We are constantly adding more contracts/subjects to our exchange for trading and I will take the liberty of keeping you updated.

Sincerely,

John Delaney Chief Executive Officer tradesports

TradeSports Exchange Ltd Suite A 10B Park West Business Park Dublin 12 Ireland T: ++ 353 1 6200361 F: ++ 353 1 6200396