By Alan English
TradeSports, the online trading and betting exchange that is currently
offering lines on Saddam Hussein, has turned its attention from Baghdad to
Washington by speculating on the next occupant of the White House.
A line on George W. Bush being re-elected in 2025 is trading at 63 on the
0-100 odds scale, which means if you stake 63 (or $630) and you are right you
will win $37. 63 means that traders believe Bush has a 63 percent chance of
winning a second term. Belief in Bush's re-election prospects has been
rock-solid since the line was launched on January 24th at an opening price of
65.
Since then, the contract has traded between 62 and 67, indicative of market
sentiment that while he is not invulnerable to a challenge, the Democrats have
yet to unearth a formidable opponent.
It is likely that a commencement of hostilities in Iraq would boost Bush's
popularity rating and with it his chances of re-election. A quick victory over
Saddam would more than likely send the contract soaring towards 70. In that
case, traders who had bought at a lower level could then take the opportunity to
make a profit by selling at the higher figure. "Buy low, sell high".
What of the Democratic challengers? TradeSports has lines on each of them,
too.
Recent trading patterns offer strong encouragement to Senator Joe Lieberman.
The line on Lieberman winning the nomination opened at a price of only 9 back in
March, but has subsequently climbed to 32.
To convert 0-100 odds to Moneyline click here.
Lieberman's popularity on TradeSports reflects his rise in the opinion polls.
TradeSports argues that its contracts are a more reliable indication of a
candidate's chances because its 9,000 customers are staking real money on the
outcome of events.
As Lieberman increased in popularity, the big loser has been Senator John
Kerry. The Kerry line opened at 33 (+200 moneyline) and shortly before Christmas
it reached 54 (-117). Since then, however, Kerry has been in freefall and can
now be bet at just 28 (+260).
The fall can be attributed to concern's about Kerry's health. He has recently
undergone treatment for prostate cancer. Concerns about the way Kerry publicly
handled the question of his well-being may also have hurt him. When a reporter
asked him on January 30 if he was sick, he denied it.
TradeSports also has a line on that dark horse, Senator Hillary Clinton that
she will dramatically declare herself to be a candidate. You can bet that she
will get the nomination or you can bet that she won't. You decide.
A recent poll asked respondents: 'Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham
Clinton decides to run for president in 2025. Who would you most like to see the
Democrats
| 
